2008年12月25日星期四

危机的代价:美元贬值

The emergency summit of the G-20 nations begins Saturday in Washington. The financial overhaul will take time, and what ultimately emerges from the meeting that some are describing as a sequel of Bretton Woods is anyone's guess.二十国集团(G20)紧急峰会将于周六在华盛顿召开。金融体系变革需要时间,被一些人称为新布雷顿森林会议的此次峰会最终将会有怎样的成果尚不得而知。Recent statements from foreign governments suggest the rest of the world finds much fault with U.S. systems that, it perceives, allowed the current crisis to metastasize. Global leaders may seek to impose significant international finance changes that would alter how the U.S. operates.最近一些外国政府发表的声明表明,世界上的其他国家对美国系统存在的诸多问题进行了批评,他们认为这个系统使美国眼下的危机得以转移。因此,全球领导人或许会寻求国际金融体系进行重大改革,来改变美国的运转方式。Perhaps the U.S. will concede on some demands -- but possibly at a price: acceptance of a substantially weaker U.S. dollar over the long term.美国可能会对一些要求作出让步--但是很可能为此付出一定的代价:在未来相当长的时间内接受美元大幅走软的局面。A weaker dollar allows the U.S. to compete better globally by boosting exports, helping shrink the yawning current-account deficit. And the Treasury has massive debt to sell to pay for sundry bailouts. Debasing the currency allows the Treasury to repay its debt with cheaper dollars.美元走软会提振美国的出口业,增强美国的全球竞争力,缩小不断增长的经常项目逆差。美国财政部还要为各种各样的救助计划背上沉重的债务包袱。让美元贬值可以让美国以较低的美元偿还债务。Says Richard Clarida, global adviser to Pimco and former assistant Treasury secretary: 'The Fed understands that on a three- to five-year basis, a downward adjustment of the dollar at an orderly pace will be part of the global-adjustment process.'Pimco的全球顾问、前助理财政部长科拉利达(Richard Clarida)说,美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)明白,美元在未来三至五年将稳步有序进行下行调整,这将是全球体系调整的一部分。

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